Using SARIMA Models in the Monitoring of Marine
Resources
Nuno Prista
(INIAP/L-IPIMAR)
Date: 5th July
Location: Amph. A
Time: 2:00 pm
Abstract
Research on
fisheries assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries
with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to
data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. These data
poor fisheries constitute the majority of fisheries worldwide and mostly have
available nothing but short time series of commercial landings data. In the
presentation, I will demonstrate some of the capabilities of seasonal
autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the monitoring of
such data-poor fisheries. I will provide as case-studies three examples of
fisheries from the Portuguese coast: the meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus
regius), the octopus (Octopodidae: Octopus
vulgaris and the squid (Loliginidae: Loligo
vulgaris). I will show that despite the limited sample size, SARIMA models can
adequately fit and forecast the commercial landings of these species. Finally, I
will show how model-based prediction intervals can be used routinely in the detection
of problematic situations in data poor fisheries and trigger research and
management actions in currently unassessed resources.