A research cruise of the ATP project, which includes CCMAR researchers, confirms the spread of warm Atlantic waters further north into the Arctic.
Published on
Surveys report that key Arctic species are
on the decline in this region
On-going experimental research aims to establish the threshold of
warming, causing abrupt changes in Arctic ecosystems
These activities represent the launching of a new European 7th
framework project on climate change impacts and thresholds on Arctic Ocean
systems: Arctic Tipping Points (ATP)
A cruise to the European sector
of the Arctic Ocean on board Univ. of Tromsø's (Norway) Jan Mayen research vessel encountered warm Atlantic water invading
areas previously occupied by cold Arctic waters. The northward displacement of
warm Atlantic waters is pushing key Arctic biota further north into the Arctic
basin. Cruise leader Paul Wassmann, Univ. of Tromsø, reports that "the scarcity of the lipid-rich, Arctic key
species Calanus glacialis appears to represent an early warning of an emerging
tipping point. The prominent seabird
Little Auk on Svalbard feeds almost exclusively on adult C. glacialis, but the
feeding condition in the vicinity of the colonies have deteriorated in recent
years and Little Auks may get extinct in years to come".
The cruise was the inaugural
activity of the Arctic Tipping Points
(ATP) project funded under Framework Program 7 of the EU. The term ''tipping point'' commonly refers to a
critical threshold at which minor perturbations can qualitatively alter the
state or development of a system. Because the Arctic is warming about three
times faster than the global rate, Arctic ecosystems are likely to encounter
climate-driven thresholds and tipping points. This may lead to abrupt
ecological changes much sooner as compared with other regions. The spectacular
recent acceleration of Arctic ice loss suggests that climate change has entered
a new phase. Indeed, the Arctic ice pack has been identified as one of the key
tipping elements in the world climate system, making change in the Arctic
significant on a global scale. Current models suggest that the Arctic Ocean
will be largely ice-free in late summer, with a cover of mostly first-year ice
in winter in 2 decades from now, or even earlier. "Such extensive changes in sea ice will have unprecedented effects on
Arctic ecosystems. Establishing where and when these tipping points will be
reached is, therefore, a matter of urgency", states Project Coordinator
Paul Wassmann.
The project Arctic Tipping Points
(ATP) will identify the elements of the Arctic marine ecosystem likely to show
abrupt changes in response to climate change. The research cruise found that a
small Arctic crustacean, the copepod Calanus
glacialis, a key node of the Arctic food web, was largely absent from
regions surveyed where it was previously abundant. "The northward displacement of the warm Atlantic water has been expected
to displace Arctic biota. The absence of
Calanus glacialis is consistent with model predictions and may already signal a
major change in the Arctic food web", says Elena Arashkevich, lead
researcher in ATP of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of
Sciences, Moscow.
The cruise carried a large volume
of Arctic water to the facilities of the University Center in Svalvard, UNIS
(Longyearbyen, Svalvard), where ATP researchers are conducting experiments to elucidate
the particular threshold of warming at which abrupt changes take place in the
planktonic community. Carlos Duarte, lead researcher at CSIC, Spain, indicates
that "the on-going experiments will help
improve models and validate their predictions, as abrupt changes signal at
non-linear processes that are remarkably elusive to predict. The results obtained so far, indicate that
the abrupt changes may occur following warming rates well below the 9 ºC
warming expected for the Arctic along the 21st Century".
Research cruises and experiments
will be complemented by state-of-the-art oceanographic-, ecological-,
fisheries-, and economic models to determine the effect of crossing those
thresholds for the Arctic marine ecosystems, and the associated risks and
opportunities for economic activities dependent on the marine ecosystem of the
European Arctic. More broadly, ATP aims to raise the attention of policy makers
to the possibility of Arctic tipping points at regional and global scales.
At the regional scales, ATP shall
examine how institutions and policies for the management of living marine
resources, tourism and petroleum development would cope with situations of very
rapid change in ecosystems driven by climate change. "This is an entirely new situation and will severely test the ability of
existing institutions to deliver policies that are sustainable over time. ATP
aims at to support the efforts of institutions in the European Arctic to devise
policies and strategies for coping with regime shifts" says Anne-Sophie
Crepin, social economist with the Beijer Institute of
Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm.
At global scales, an
understanding of tipping points and potential regime shift in the Arctic
ecosystem due to various levels of warming must be considered in negotiations
toward a new international agreement for climate change regulation, and will be
valuable for informing the EU position during these negotiations. "The marginal ice zones are no longer the
last frontier of the unknown polar regions, but they become the trenches of the
fight against climate change", concludes Paul Wassmann, ATP coordinator.
Faro, 17 July, 2009
Source: Arctic Tipping Points
Project funded by Framework Program 7 of the EU
Total EU contribution: 5 million Euros
Period: 2009-2011
13 partners from 11 countries: Norway
(Coordinator), Denmark, France, Germany, Greenland, Poland, Portugal, Russia,
Spain, Sweden and UK.
Learn more at www.eu-atp.org